By Jim Boyce

I posted last week re some of the 2013 wine import stats for China. Below is a story I wrote for Wine Business International (you can register for the WBI newsletter here). Two key takeaways: 1) When you exclude the huge influence of France, the numbers for 2013 look far better;  2) growth in 2013 came in the first half, with the second half seeing a steep drop, something that does not bode well as we mosey into the Year of the Horse. Here is the draft:

~

“Although the Chinese market is still showing signs of growth, with bottled wine imports rising 4.8% in 2013, there are reasons for caution. Value per case fell.

“The sobering stats show volume rose 4.8% to 279m L, from 266m L in 2012,“ a stark result in light of recent years, where rises topped 50%. The splash of cold water came in the numbers for value, up just 0.5%, or $7m, to $1.4bn. The result: value per case actually fell 5.3% to $47.00.

“France easily retained its spot as market leader, with 46.1% by volume and 47.6% by value. Even so, it underperformed in 2013. Volume rose 1.1% while value fell 9.5%, a spread that points to the Chinese government crackdown on official spending, one that no doubt covers pricey French wine.

“When French figures are contrasted with those of other top ten sources, including Australia, Spain and Chile, the situation looks better. Those nine collectively saw growth of about 9% in volume and nearly 15% in value, not far off the numbers for 2012. Seven of them saw volume growth, including three in double digits, while all of them gained by value, including seven in double digits.

“France, Australia, Spain, Chile, Italy and the US, ‘the big six‘, again combined for over 90% of market share by volume. Australia (a 13.1% share) retained its second-place position, with imports up 7.5% by volume and 8.8% by value. It had the highest value per case at $56.00. Spain took third spot (10.7% share), rising 11.4% by volume and 16.5% by value, though it easily had the lowest value per case at $28.00.

“Chile (9.2% share) saw the biggest gain by volume, at 22.6%, and also rose 15.1% by value. Italy (7% share) rose 1.5% by volume and saw the biggest gain by value, at 15.2%. Rounding out the big six, the U.S. (4.6% share) was down 1.5% by volume but up 12.4% by value.

“Volume gains [were] easily outpaced [by] those for value for a number of sources outside the big six, including Portugal (up 13.7% by volume versus 27.8% by value), Argentina (6.5% versus 22.8%) and Germany (3.6% versus 17%). South Africa was relatively flat, down -1.6% by volume and up 2.4% by value, while New Zealand saw volume drop a whopping 23.5%, although the fall in value was shorter at 15.7%. New Zealand had the second-highest value per case at $85.00 $93.00, behind only Canada at $109.00 $110.00. [I mistakenly included the 2012 by case figures for Canada and New Zealand in my draft.]

“With so many sources posting gains in volume, value or both, the wine import story beyond France seemed to be heading in a positive direction last year. One final contrast should cause concern: the quarterly results.

“Versus 2012, bottled still wine imports rose 21% in the first quarter and 10% in the second quarter of 2013. Then came the bad news. Imports fell 7% in the third quarter and 9% in the fourth quarter, with France, Australia, Spain, Italy and the United States all either flat or losing ground. Thus, while there are reasons to see 2013 as better for most sources than the overall numbers suggest, there is good cause to be cautious about 2014.”

~

Sign up for my free China wine newsletter here. You can also follow Grape Wall of Twitter here and Weibo here.

Grape Wall has no sponsors of advertisers: if you find the content and projects like World Marselan Day worthwhile, please help cover the costs via PayPal, WeChat or Alipay.

Sign up for the free Grape Wall newsletter here. Follow Grape Wall on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook and Twitter. And contact Grape Wall via grapewallofchina (at) gmail.com.